NFL Mock Draft 1.0
NFL Football is back baby! Well, not for Jalen Carter, who decided to spit on Dak Prescott inside the first 10 seconds last night and almost cost the Eagles a vital division game. With the return of NFL football being punctuated, with the new NFL Redzone with ads (boooo) this Sunday, now feels like the right time to drop my first Mock Draft of this year’s cycle. You might say it’s too early to do a mock draft because all could change in a week, and you might be right. But it’s my humble view that it’s never too early to start to dream about who might be donning your team’s colours 12 months from now, bringing a particular sense of hope to all franchises, but particularly those drafting in the Top 10 here.
A few orders of business before we start:
1) The draft order is based on a number of factors, such as statistical projections, however, is also a massive judgment call on my end. In other words, there is some subjectivity to it, I haven’t just used Vegas odds!
2) I have included any player here who is draft-eligible, irrespective of whether they have made public platitudes about declaring or not. So, don’t come at me and say Arch Manning or Sam Leavitt aren’t coming out, when there’s still a 0.000000001% chance they will; and
3) This Mock Draft is heavily influenced by my Top 50, which was published last week. If you have any question marks on why a ceratain player is where he is, check that out first and then feel free to disagree.
Now that those are out of the way, let’s get into it.
#1 New Orleans Saints: LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina
The temptation to select Arch Manning here is palpable, but I am just not sure he’s ready for everything that goes along with trying to replace his Dad as the best Manning to play in New Orleans. In this mock draft, the Saints hierarchy agrees and instead selects arguably the most physically gifted QB in the nation. I do not expect the Spencer Rattler/Tyler Shough experiment to go well down in the Big Easy, so the Saints will be back to the drawing board in April. Sellers is a fit in the Kellen Moore offense, and has already started the season looking dangerous for the Gamecocks. He has all the look of recent Top 10 QBs in the draft.
#2 New York Giants: Arch Manning, QB, Texas
Firstly, let me say that I am a believer in Arch Manning and do not think the Ohio State game alone should define him. He showed me enough over the course of the game to convince me that he has the accuracy and arm talent to intrigue scouts, that are seeking a franchise QB. In this scenario, the Giants have a Manning drop into their lap instead of having to trade up to take one. If the Giants are drafting this high, then they have likely cleaned house, allowing Arch to start over with a fresh new playcaller. The Giants have a much better supporting cast, and Manning won’t be asked to do as much as if he were playing in New Orleans or Cleveland, making this a much better fit.
#3 Cleveland Browns: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
The Browns pass on their QB here, knowing there should be decent options later in the 1st round. I could not find value here in either Klubnik, Nussmeier or Allar, so the Browns take the best player available at a position of need. Mauigoa is my OT1 and is a Top 5 player in this class. The Browns have moved on from former 1st-rounder Jedrick Wills, while Jack Conklin is no spring chicken and can’t stay healthy. Here, they get a bookend protector to keep whoever they have at QB upright (Shedeur anybody?)
#4 Tennessee Titans: T.J. Parker, Edge, Clemson
The Titans moved on from Harold Landry without much of a plan to replace him. I liked Femi Oladejo (Titans 2nd-round pick), but he shouldn’t dissuade Tennessee’s front office from pulling the trigger on the best pass rusher in the draft. Parker wasn’t fantastic vs LSU, but that doesn’t discount a monster season in 2024, and he will have plenty more opportunities to return to form across 2025. Titans have their QB, now they get someone to disrupt the other team’s.
#5 New York Jets: Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU
I really want to believe Justin Fields will be a success in New York with the Jets. As a Steelers fan, I enjoyed seeing him winning some games before being benched for Russell Wilson last season, and felt he did enough to earn a chance somewhere. But this situation in New York has almost none of the ingredients that are needed for a QB redemption arc. So in this mock, I have the Jets starting over with Nussmeier. I do not believe Nussmeier is worthy of a Top-5 pick, but the buzz around him is undeniable following the Tigers thrilling win over Clemson in Week 1.
#6 Carolina Panthers: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
I agree with some of the sentiment I’ve seen online that there has been revisionist history on Bryce Young’s performance in 2024. He was not good, but he was better than he had been previously, and that’s a start. He has better weapons than he’s had before, but his protection left a lot to be desired in 2024. Ikem Ekwonu was a Top-10 pick but has not lived up to that standing. It may be time for the Panthers to take another swing, and in this mock, I have them selecting the run-blocking phenom from Utah, Spencer Fano. Fano isn’t often mocked in the Top 10, but I have no problem putting him here. Once people start to turn on the tape, he will be a difficult player to ignore for NFL GMs.
#7 New England Patriots: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
The best player in college football goes to New England to pair up with Mike Vrabel? Count me in. Downs represents tremendous value here and is a tone-setter on any defense. He solidified his status among college football’s elite with another dominating display vs Texas. Any concerns about his fit in Matt Patricia’s defense were quickly put to bed. New England will likely be on the lookout for a new starting safety in 2026, and Downs fits the mould to perfection.
#8 Indianapolis Colts: Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State
I don’t care what the Colts say, I do not believe Anthony Richardson has a future as the franchise QB in Indianapolis. They benched him for a player who has the lowest win percentage of any starting QB since 2019, and has the lowest TD percentage of any QB with 1,000 passes or more in the same span. They may decide to wait on a QB, but in this mock, they snap up Leavitt ahead of other QB-needy teams. 4 QBs in the Top 8 picks is unlikely when the draft rolls around, given 3 are Redshirt Sophomores, but I like Leavitt, and I think he would be a very good fit in Shane Steichen’s offense, assuming the embattled coach is still around when this pick is made.
#9 Dallas Cowboys: Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn
The Cowboys defense was a sieve for 2 quarters Thursday night, as the Eagles marched up and down the field with little resistance. Could they have won the game with Micah Pa…. I’m not even going to go there! The middle of the defense looked fine with Osa Odighuzuwa and Kenny Clark, so I have an edge rusher here as a bigger need. Faulk is not a Parsons clone by any stretch and reminds me a bit of Tyree Wilson coming out of college. He would plug a need for the Cowboys along their defensive line as they look to rebuild that defense next season.
#10 Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta Falcons): Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
The Falcons have some boom-or-bust potential with Michael Penix taking the field as the anointed starting QB for the first time this Sunday. In this mock, I have a relative bust for the Falcons, and the pick is sent to LA following the draft-day trade back in April. The Rams are relying on Alaric Jackson, who has had his injury concerns and 33-year old Rob Havenstein to man the tackle spots. With this pick, they reset at one tackle spot in what could be a rebuild post-Stafford.
#11 Miami Dolphins: Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson
The Dolphins moved off of Jalen Ramsey by trading him this offseason for Minkah Fitzpatrick, and with the unfortunate injury to Kader Kohou, this position now looks increasingly thin. Terrell is among the best CBs in the country, and plays with a toughness and physicality the Dolphins will like. I considered Jermod McCoy at this spot, but until he is fully cleared from his Torn ACL, it is hard to project him this high.
#12 Chicago Bears: Peter Woods, DL, Clemson
This is a flat-out steal for the Bears to get the best defensive lineman in the draft at pick 12. This is a case of best player available as the Bears do have some dudes on their defensive line, including a couple of former 2nd-rounders in Gervon Dexter and Shemar Turner, but Woods is too tantalising to pass up at this spot. Grady Jarrett was signed in the offseason, but at 32, his best years may be behind him. Here, the Bears don’t overthink it and select a Top-5 talent.
#13 Las Vegas Raiders: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
Jakobi Meyers has basically said he wants out of Vegas. Amari Cooper retired out of the blue this week. The Raiders have Brock Bowers, but they need help on the outside. Tre Tucker, Dont’e Thornton and Jack Bech are fine players, but none have the skillset of Jordyn Tyson. Tyson went off in Week 1 against limited opposition, but will have a chance to show what he can do in Starkville this weekend as the Sun Devils take on Mississippi State. For me, he is the best receiver in the class and is worthy of a Top-15 selection.
#14 Arizona Cardinals: Anthony Hill Jr., LB, Texas
The Cardinals were among the worst teams in the NFL last year in terms of missed tackles and allowing yards after the catch. Hill Jr. comes in and immediately improves a 2nd level that has been crying out for a bit of sizzle in recent seasons. He plays with excellent closing speed, almost doubling his TFLs in 2024 from the previous year and had 44 stops, which was among the top 50 LBs in the nation last year. Sounds like just what the doctor ordered for this defense.
#15 Cleveland Browns (from Jacksonville Jaguars): Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson
And Cleveland gets its QB, courtesy of the Jaguars sending their pick to the Browns in exchange for moving up to select Travis Hunter in the 2025 Draft. I did not have a 1st round grade on Klubnik entering the season, and he did not impress in Week 1. But the NFL is seemingly very high on him, so I would be surprised if he makes it out of the Top 20. Cleveland does not believe in Shedeur or Dillon Gabriel, and Flacco is on his last legs in the NFL. My guess is the Browns, with their 2 1st-round picks, do not leave Pittsburgh next April without a signal-caller.
#16 Seattle Seahawks: LT Overton, DE, Alabama
I won’t lie, the Seahawks don’t have many holes on paper. The QB position has been invested in heavily, the two-headed monster at RB is solid, and both lines have had heavy investment over the previous 3-4 drafts. Even the secondary features an elite CB and some solid supporting pieces, however, the talent level just doesn’t seem to match the record. So I’ve gone best fit here with Overton, who is one of the more boom-or-bust prospects in the entire first round. His production hasn’t fully matched his talent (see, he’s a Seahawks already), but there are flashes of Top-10 talent on his film. With some older pieces along the defensive line, such as Demarcus Lawrence and Jarran Reed, it might be wise to stock the shelves at a key position.
#17 Denver Broncos: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
The Broncos have gone from strength to strength under Coach Sean Payton and are a darkhorse candidate to make a run in 2025. I don’t feel as strongly about the Broncos as some, who I have just missing the playoffs in this mock draft. In my opinion, if the Broncos are to miss the playoffs, it will be because of inconsistent secondary play (excluding Patrick Surtain of course). Riley Moss did not play well last year, and 1st-rounder Jahdae Barron was brought in to help at slot corner, while oft-injured Hufanga was brought in to help on the back-end. Thieneman may end up being the pick here if those moves don’t work out, and what an insurance policy to have. Thieneman was Mr. Consistent at Purdue and now takes his talent to the West Coast, looking to put his full range of skills to the test against elite competition.
#18 Minnesota Vikings: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
Jermod McCoy has Top-15 talent, but a Torn ACL in January could see him slide in next year’s draft. He is an adept cover corner with the ball skills of a former receiver who should meet all the speed and athletic criteria of an outside corner, if the medicals hold up. The Vikings have a good No.1 corner in Byron Murphy, but there is some uncertainty as to the quality of the depth at the position. McCoy would come in right away and compete for a starting spot in the Brian Flores defense.
#19 Los Angeles Chargers: Tyreak Sapp, DE, Florida
Something tells me LA may just make the Wildcard again, this time as the No.7 seed. Their performance last night was impressive; however, I still think they’re missing something to compete with the big dogs in the AFC on a consistent basis. That missing link may well be that beef up front, as there really aren’t any big names in the interior of that defensive line. Sapp has been a mainstay in the Gators’ defense for 3 years, but broke out in 2024 with an 8-sack season. Sapp is a power rusher who uses strong hands, combined with an excellent motor, to overwhelm offensive tackles and interior linemen.
#20 Washington Commanders: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
Washington may well take a step back this year, but in fairness, consecutive playoff appearances certainly wouldn’t be the worst thing for the much-beleaguered Commanders fanbase. I like Jacory Croskey-Merritt, but he was a 7th-round pick, and with Brian Robinson Jr. out of town, RB has become a need for Washington. Love is the best RB in the class, despite struggling vs Miami in Week 1. I am putting that down to a poor game plan by the Fighting Irish, rather than any talent deficiency. Love is tough to take down in space, showcasing a tackle-breaking ability that is among the best in the class.
#21 Los Angeles Rams: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
The Rams make the 2nd of two picks in the 1st-round here and select one of the most-talked about CBs since Week 1 in college football. The former Virginia Tech cover man is excellent in man coverage and showcased his rare ball skills vs Clemson with an INT and 2 pass breakups. He should stick at outside corner, due to some change of direction limitations, but that should be no problem for the Rams, where outside corner has been an issue. Akhello Witherspoon was benched last year, and Darious Williams was up and down, so Delane could find a role right away in the Rams secondary.
#22 Pittsburgh Steelers: Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
In front of the home crowd along the Allegheny River, the Steelers select their QB of the future. Fans will be hoping for better than the last QB taken in the 20’s by the Steelers, but Allar possesses a more dynamic, if inconsistent skillset compared to Kenny Pickett. Drew Allar definitely improved in 2024, but had his worst performance of the year in his final game vs Notre Dame. A solid game vs Nevada in Week 1, but stiffer tests are to come for the former 5-star recruit who will need to show he has taken some strides in his command of the offense at Penn State.
#23 Houston Texans: Ar’maj Reed-Adams, IOL, Texas A&M
I know… The Texans selected another interior offensive lineman in the first round from Texas A&M a mere 4 years ago. But I liked Kenyon Green coming out and didn’t hate the pick then, even though it clearly hasn’t worked out. Reed-Adams has Top-15 tape for me, so I think he’s good value here at pick 23. Houston’s line has not been good for multiple years, and they traded away star LT Laremy Tunsil, seemingly out of frustration at the performance of the line. The Texans need to build from the inside out, and the former Kansas lineman has taken to the SEC like a duck to water, and should continue to improve for the Aggies.
#24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami
Tampa Bay needs more juice on the edge, that is without doubt. YaYa Diaby has been solid as Joe Tryon-Shoyinka had been before he left for Cleveland in Free Agency. The Bucs will rely on well-travelled Hasson Reddick to provide some pop off the edge, but Bain Jr. provides a much better long-term option. Bain Jr. has had his injury issues, but his tape reveals a powerful rusher off the edge who has the versatility to kick inside. He has started the season well, having six tackles, 0.5 sacks and a tip-drill interception vs Notre Dame.
#25 Cincinnati Bengals: Dani Dennis-Sutton, DE, Penn State
The Bengals just took an edge rusher in 2025; however, Dennis-Sutton is more of a hand-in-the-dirt type of player than Stewart was coming out. The Penn State d-lineman has been in the spotlight ever since his performance against Notre Dame 8 months ago. In that game, he intercepted a fourth-quarter pass, forced a fumble and made two sacks as part of his six-tackle effort, showing a well-rounded skillset. Cincinnati has struggled at times up front, and Dennis Sutton could be a big addition to a defense that is still finding its feet.
#26 Detroit Lions: Malik Muhammad, CB, Texas
I am not just saying this because I had the Lions as a team fit for Muhammad in my Hall of Game draft preview special. The Lions corners haven’t been elite on the outside with Terrion Arnold struggling at times, and Carlton Davis out, replaced by former Seahawk and Jet, D.J. Reed. Maybe that signing works out, but for now, I think Muhammad is the pick. Muhammad has the length and movement skills to be a big riser in the draft process, if he can avoid the penalties and lapses in run defense.
#27 San Francisco 49ers: Jake Slaughter, C, Florida
I have almost no confidence the Niners will actually take Slaughter here, but it just makes too much sense not to. Jake Brendel is not a good pass blocker, while Slaughter on the other hand has allowed only 1 sack since the beginning of the 2024 season. He has already started 2025 well for the Gators, and would immediately improve the Niners’ line and fit nicely alongside mid-round draft find Dominick Puni. San Francisco might ideally prefer an Offensive Tackle here, given Trent Williams’ age and Colton McKivitz being in a contract year, but with none offering value at #27, Slaughter should be the pick.
#28 Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Moore, Edge, Michigan
Derrick Moore has had to be patient as part of the Wolverines rotation on the defensive line, sitting behind NFL talents such as Josiah Stewart, but should get his chance to shine in a more prominent role in 2025. Moore has good size and length, and flashes a mature game with solid hand usage and power to put offensive linemen in a bind. The Ravens spent a premium pick on Mike Green back in April, but he had off-the-field issues, and Odafe Oweh broke out in 2024 for 10 sacks after previously failing to impress. Too many question marks mean the Ravens pass rush could do with more flash in Moore to compete with the other Tier 1 teams in the AFC.
#29 Kansas City Chiefs: Gabe Jacas, Edge, Illinois
Jacas has had an excellent start to the 2025 season, building on his 8-sack performance in 2024. He can take over games, flashing serious power in his rushes and consistency in his technique and motor. Kansas City has been searching for a running mate opposite George Karlaftis, and the pass rush came up short last night in Brazil, allowing Herbert too much time to carve up the defense. All of a sudden, the QB play in the AFC West has improved dramatically, and the Chiefs can no longer rely on a potent offense to dominate. They need to get after QBs more consistently off the edge.
#30 Philadelphia Eagles: Chandler Rivers, CB, Duke
The reigning Super Bowl champs got off to a winning start Thursday night, despite losing their best defensive player for the entire game. However, the performance of Adoree’ Jackson at Corner has to be worrying. The Eagles let Darius Slay go because of the performances of the two rookies last year, both of whom made the NFL’s Top 100 list. Jackson was signed to a 1-year contract in Free Agency, and something tells me the Eagles won’t be renewing that partnership. Rivers impressed me on tape both from a fundamentals perspective and playmaking ability. At only 5'10 his lack of size might worry some scouts, however, he plays with strong instincts, tackles well, and attacks the ball in the air.
#31 Dallas Cowboys (from Green Bay Packers): A.J. Harris , CB, Penn State
The Cowboys have plenty of corners, but none can seem to stay healthy consistently. Apparently, the Dallas front office wasn’t that keen on how Diggs handled his rehab, and you know what that means! Shavon Revel Jr. was brought in via the draft, but he is recovering from a Torn ACL, while DaRon Bland is recovering from a stress fracture in his foot. Harris would offer something different to what is currently on the roster and could start Day 1. Harris is versatile, long with strong instincts in coverage, and could take a big leap in 2025 on the Nittany Lions defense.
#32 Buffalo Bills: Makai Lemon , WR, USC
Lemon was impressive Week 1 and reminds me of the current Buffalo Bills receiver, Curtis Samuel. Samuel has been a flop in Buffalo and could be traded away sooner rather than later, opening up this spot for the talented USC receiver. Lemon is the best pure slot receiver I have scouted so far in the 2026 class. He showcased his full arsenal in the final regular season game in 2024 vs Notre Dame, up against future NFL prospects. He is the safety blanket for new full-time starter Jayden Maiava, and with a productive 2025 season, could easily find his way to the top of the draft.